Trilateral Talks in Tokyo: Balancing Cooperation and Tension
Back in March 2023, foreign ministers from Japan, China, and South Korea gathered in Tokyo for a much-anticipated summit. The mood was a mix of optimism and caution, as everyone at the table knew this wasn’t just another diplomatic photo-op. The main reason for the get-together was simple on paper: cool off rising regional temperatures and see if old rivals could work on the same side, at least when it came to big issues like economics and security.
Leading the charge from Japan was Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, sitting down with China’s Wang Yi and Cho Tae Yul from South Korea. Together, they announced a “future-oriented” agenda, which sounds good until you remember decades of unresolved history and flashpoints that refuse to go away. In particular, Japan keeps a wary eye on Chinese activity in the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and talks about keeping peace in the Taiwan Strait. China, meanwhile, likes to remind everyone of past Japanese aggression, especially marking the 80th anniversary of the Second Sino-Japanese War. All this history hangs heavy in the room, making discussions prickly even before anyone starts talking specifics.
The ministers outlined three main things they wanted to get done: boost understanding between the three countries, lock in economic cooperation to protect their citizens’ well-being, and tackle shared problems, especially their aging populations and falling birth rates. Or, in plain English: Try to help each other out, without letting grudges and territorial arguments ruin the party.
China Pushes, Japan and South Korea Push Back
If you looked at the summit through China’s eyes, it was a golden opportunity. With U.S. trade policy under Trump getting unpredictable, export-heavy economies like Japan and South Korea started to question just how much they could count on Washington anymore. China tried hard to use that uncertainty to its advantage, pitching faster regional economic integration and a reboot of long-frozen free trade negotiations. But Japan and South Korea, while happy to talk, weren’t ready to jump in with both feet. Both stayed measured, more concerned about getting burned later on over security or sovereignty than politely nodding along with Beijing’s plans.
Tensions hit the surface when Japan brought up recent Chinese incursions near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Not only that, Tokyo called out China’s detention of Japanese citizens, and used the talks to push for stability in hot zones like the Taiwan Strait. China, for its part, didn’t let this go unchallenged—Wang Yi reminded everyone of painful memories from World War II, a common move in Beijing’s diplomatic playbook. These thinly-veiled jabs proved that, despite all the handshakes, deep trust was still a distant dream.
The talks also detoured into wider global security issues. Japan’s Iwaya didn’t shy away from criticizing unilateral actions by force—a pointed nod at both Russia over Ukraine and China’s behavior in areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan. That kind of talk left little doubt about whose side Japan would take if things got rougher in the region.
At the end of the day, what did the summit actually achieve? The symbolic value was real: it ended a two-year freeze in trilateral discussions and set the stage for a possible leaders’ meeting sometime soon. But when you dig past the optics, the same old disagreements—over borders, history, and who gets the final say—still hang over any attempt at true cooperation. Analysts watching the region aren’t holding their breath for a breakthrough just yet.